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Prediction for CME (2023-11-27T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-27T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27897/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME centered to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source eruption is a filament eruption with liftoff starting around 2023-11-27T23:00Z in SDO AIA 304. The eruption may also be associated with a C5.5 flare from AR 3503 (approx. N15E30). The source signature is also visible as an EUV wave, dimming, and post eruptive arcades in SDO AIA 193, opening field lines in SDO AIA 171, and brightening with post-eruptive loops in SDO AIA 94. Post-eruptive loops are visible following a data gap in the NE quadrant in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery. Arrival signature (likely of the combined front of this CME with the 2023-11-27T20:12Z CME) is characterized by a sudden amplification of magnetic field from 4 nT to 13 nT (and eventually to 15 nT), with Bz component reaching -13 nT . Accompanied by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from under 350 to 450 km/s, in ion density to over 20 particles/cc and in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T23:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-30T22:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31128
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 28 Nov 2023, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 177 / AP: 006 
PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 005 
PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 165 / AP: 004

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Corona Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 18:48 UTC. It is expected to be geo-effective and arrive on 1 Dec. Another CME associated with a filament eruption can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from
23:48 UTC, yesterday. Based on the location and extent of the filament, it is expected to arrive at Earth's environment early on Dec 1. These two events, together with the possible arrival of a CME reported yesterday, are likely to merge together and cause a strong single effect in the first half of 1 Dec.

Lead Time: 51.75 hour(s)
Difference: 0.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-11-28T19:44Z

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